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Winter is Coming: German Economy Doomed in Wake of Anti-Russian Sanctions, Scholars Say_我的网站

一 |     フォロワー1200万人以上を持つ有名インフルエンサーが、妻の23時間に及ぶ出産過程を撮影してオンラインに公開し、激しい批判を浴びた。緊急処置が行われる中、紙おむつの広告まで行っていたことが明らかになり、大きな反発を招き、最終的にアカウントは停止された。    While Germany's producer prices observe the biggest rise since records began in 1949, the index has also shown the biggest month-on-month increase, leaping 5.3% from June to July.,"The outlook for the further development [of the economy] is currently noticeably gloomy," and marked by "a high degree of uncertainty," Germany's Finance Ministry said in its August monthly report, quoted by Reuters.,"We have something like a tsunami coming," said Florian Josef Hoffmann, former president of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce East Thuringia and author of "Occupy Economics." "It’s calm water, everything goes slowly down. For example, furniture retail has completely stopped and other things are going down, too. Everything goes slower step by step. But the disaster comes, as I told you, in autumn. And that will be very bad. I can't imagine that this economy can easily survive this really critical situation.",Germans have been experiencing some pre-existing domestic problems as the government turned down nuclear and coal plants in order to switch over to gas and renewables, he noted. However, anti-Russian sanctions which included a sweeping energy embargo "create a real huge problem for the economy because it is based on the cheap Russian gas and now it's cut down by the own will of the government," according to Hoffmann.,"They cut down the gas import [from Russia]," he explained. "So the whole strategy of the past is ruined, and that's the problem. And that makes for great uncertainty because more or less the ship runs against the ice mountain. It's more than uncertainty; I see even the crash coming along for the German economy, not only because of these sanctions, but because of the consequences of the sanctions.",Energy Crisis in EuropeEU Will Not Replace Russian Gas in Full If Nord Stream 1 Remains Shut, Expert Says19 July, 18:20 GMT,The Russo-German chill started with Berlin suspending the Nord Stream 2 project on February 22, 2022. Moscow launched a special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine two days later, after the US, NATO and the EU defied Russia's draft security agreements envisaging ending the transatlantic military alliance's expansion and deployment in Ukraine.,In the aftermath of the operation, the US and its NATO allies have introduced several packages of sanctions. The EU pledged to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels before 2030, following in Washington and London's footsteps. In April, Brussels laid out targets to slash its demand for Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.,Western sanctions also complicated Gazprom's maintenance of the existing Nord Stream 1 infrastructure. The Russian company was forced to reduce shipments via the network in mid-June over delays in the repair of a Siemens-built high-pressure gas pumping turbine in Canada. Ottawa deliberately delayed the return of the turbine, which had undergone maintenance work, back to Europe, citing anti-Russian sanctions. To make matters worse, the Canadian side did not provide proper documentation for the turbine which resulted in further delays. In late July, Gazprom said that it had to stop the operation of another Siemens gas turbine engine for maintenance, which prompted western press to groundlessly claim that Russia was deliberately cutting gas supplies to Europe.,Berlin's energy policy is dictated from Washington for the detriment of the people of Germany, according to Dr. Christian Blex, an AfD lawmaker from the state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia.,"The sanctions that the hypermoral German government in particular is repeatedly demanding are therefore particularly bad for our country," he said. "Any responsible government would base its actions on the well-being of its own people rather than acting as a vassal of the US.",Energy Crisis in EuropeGermany Should Immediately Launch Nord Stream 2, Bundestag Vice Speaker Says08:42 GMT,Biggest Problems Coming in Autumn, Winter,As of yet, the negative impact of sanctions is not particularly felt by ordinary Germans, according to the observers.,"At the moment we don't feel anything. Big bills are only announced and haven't yet reached the consumers," said Hoffmann. "But the announcements are that the energy prices will go up three to five fold, for many people [this will be] simply unpayable. That’s what is going to come in autumn. Ordinary people prepare by buying canned food or wood or gas stoves. What I also know is, for instance, that not only the ordinary people, but also the cities are preparing. The city of Dusseldorf is cutting down the heating of all gangways in their administration facilities. They are cutting the temperature down from 21 degrees centigrade to 19 or even 17, closing saunas and heating outside swimming pools. They are cutting down lights on public buildings.",While the people are not yet in panic, the German authorities are, according to Hoffmann.,"The government is talking about reducing the turnover tax for gas from 19% to 7% and they are trying to reduce the tax load for pensioners and other instruments to calm down the people," he noted. "But it's ridiculous what they plan when you look at the task of breaking a huge breakdown of the economy. It's only peanuts.",Meanwhile, businesses are expecting climbing power prices, and they are already thinking about how to compensate for that, according to him.,"The German economy looks to the future with serious concerns," echoed Blex. "In contrast to many citizens, business knows exactly what the energy crisis will bring. In public, however, criticism is heard only hesitantly. Fear of green politics and the media is still very great. As the suffering increases, the criticism will become louder… The biggest problems are coming up for the ordinary people with the inflation of food prices and extremely with the power costs. It will hit the poor, the low income class, those who will have to pay not 40, 50 or 60 euros per month for their power, but 200, 400 or even 500. That will make them not only hungry but upset.",WorldGerman Craftsmen Urge Chancellor Scholz to Scrap Sanctions Against Russia13:40 GMT,The AfD lawmaker expects a worsening recession with industrial production falling noticeably in Germany. He forecasts that short-time work will be reintroduced, adding that retailers are already noticing that more and more Germans are making significant savings. After all, the German national debt will continue to rise rapidly, according to him.,For his part, Hoffmann does not rule out that the people will eventually take to the streets en masse, stressing that the German government has already been preparing for this scenario.,"Our Ministry of Defense is preparing a special task force of 1900 soldiers, which have to keep peace within the country," he said. "This is an incredible decision. Our Bundeswehr is an army solely for defense against attacks from the outside. This basic rule is now broken, which means we are now in a totalitarian regime which has no respect for laws and our Constitution. They simply do what they want including censorship. And as one can see, they are preparing for a revolution.",Hoffmann cites German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as saying that the country's forces won't shoot at the people. However, the author expresses skepticism about Scholz' pledge: "It is like 'nobody wants to build a wall' in 1961 and then it was built some weeks later. So, the situation is disastrous," he concluded.。【写真】出産直後に出血で苦しむインフルエンサーの妻の姿 23日、香港のサウスチャイナ・モーニング・ポスト（SCMP）によると、「Paul in USA（ポール・イン・USA）」という名前で活動する中国のインフルエンサーは、最近、妻の出産の全過程を収めた映像を投稿して非難を浴びた。1990年生まれの彼は、米コロンビア大学を卒業後、シアトルに住んでおり、過去にはマイクロソフト（MS）のプロダクトマネジャーとして働いていたという。2019年2月から日常を撮影した映像をオンラインに投稿し始めた彼は、「中国東北部の方言を話すMSのプロダクトマネジャー」という独特なキャラクターで注目を集め、急速に人気を得た。現在、フォロワーは1220万人を超えている。問題となった映像には、妻の23時間にわたる出産の様子が克明に記録されていた。出産直後に出血で苦しむ姿や、身体が露出した場面まで含まれていた。

二 | 出産の過程で妻は、最も重い部類にあたる3度の会陰裂傷を負い、3リットルを超える大量出血により、緊急手術と輸血を受けなければならなかった。その後、妻と生まれたばかりの娘はいずれも容体は安定していると伝えられている。しかし、医療スタッフが緊急処置を行う状況でも彼は撮影を続け、映像には紙おむつの広告文を自ら読み上げる場面まで含まれており、さらなる批判を招いた。中国のインフルエンサー広告仲介サイトの資料によると、彼は20秒以下の動画で25万元（約560万円）、21～60秒の動画で27万8000元、60秒を超える動画で29万8000元を受け取っているという。問題の出産映像で実際にいくらの広告収益を得たのかは確認されていない。批判が広がると問題の映像は削除され、彼のアカウントは「プラットフォームのポリシー違反」を理由に停止された。批判が続く中、妻は今月10日、ソーシャルメディアを通じて「私たちは出産の過程をありのままに記録しようとした」と述べ、「撮影中に合併症が発生するとは予想していなかったが、それでも映像を共有することが重要だと考えた」と説明した。さらに「この映像が出産の危険性や予測不可能性をよりよく理解する助けになったと言ってくれた人もいる」とし、「すべての出産が順調なわけではなく、中には非常に危険な出産もある」と付け加えた。これに対し中国のネットユーザーらは、「妻の苦痛を再生数に変えた」「広告まで入れるのは一線を越えている」「妻が大量出血で危険な状況にあるのに広告を撮っていたとは、アカウント停止だけでは足りない」などの反応を示した。

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